Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model

A t first glance, the outcome of the 2008 presidential election would appear to be very difficult to predict. For the first time in over 50 years, there will be no incumbent president or vice president in the race. Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, is pinning its hopes of retaining control of the White House on Arizona Senator John McCain—an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party’s leadership. And McCain’s Democratic opponent will be Illinois Senator Barack Obama, the first African American ever to receive a major-party presidential nomination. The absence of an incumbent president or vice president in the race and the unusual characteristics of the two major-party candidates have led to considerable uncertainty among political observers about the outlook for the November election. While President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings and the public’s overwhelmingly negative perceptions of the economy indicate a very difficult political climate for Republicans, McCain’s reputation as a maverick and Obama’s problems uniting Democratic voters behind his candidacy have led some analysts to suggest that a Democratic victory in November is far from certain. Polling data seem to support the argument that despite the unpopularity of his party, McCain has a realistic chance of keeping the White House in Republican hands. McCain has been running very close to Obama in most national polls since the conclusion of the presidential primaries.